Consensus Beat Rate | 2026-05-01 | Quality Score: 94/100
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Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM), the world’s largest publicly traded gold producer by market capitalization, has been named one of the 15 best precious metal stocks to buy by Wall Street analysts, following a stellar first-quarter 2026 performance that beat consensus earnings and revenue estimates by
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The latest round of analyst revisions for NEM kicked off on April 24, 2026, when BMO Capital Markets analyst Matthew Murphy lifted his 12-month price target on the stock to $145 from a prior $140, while maintaining an Outperform rating. Murphy noted that Newmont has delivered a solid start to its 2026 full-year guidance, with ongoing cost optimization initiatives and a planned production ramp in the second half of 2026 and beyond set to drive long-term value, even as early second-quarter output
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Key Highlights
Newmont’s Q1 2026 operational and financial results exceeded market expectations across all core metrics. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.90, 30.6% above the consensus analyst estimate of $2.22, while total revenue hit $7.31 billion, a 13.5% beat over the $6.44 billion consensus forecast. Operationally, the company produced 1.3 million attributable ounces of gold, 9 million ounces of silver, and 30,000 tonnes of copper during the quarter, with output primarily coming from its fully man
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Expert Insights
From a fundamental perspective, Newmont’s strong Q1 performance and favorable analyst sentiment position it as a leading defensive growth play in the commodities space, according to sector analysts. The company’s diversified asset base, which includes exposure to copper, silver, and other base metals alongside its core gold production, reduces its exposure to single-commodity price volatility relative to pure-play gold miners, a key competitive advantage in the current uncertain macro environment. BMO’s $145 price target implies 21.8% upside from NEM’s April 29, 2026 closing price of $119.10, while TD’s $129 target implies 8.3% upside, with the Hold rating from TD largely reflecting near-term concerns about potential gold price volatility as the Federal Reserve navigates expected rate cuts in 2026. The record $3.1 billion in quarterly free cash flow gives Newmont significant flexibility to both return capital to shareholders and invest in high-return expansion projects, including the Tanami mine expansion in Australia and the Pueblo Viejo upgrade in the Dominican Republic, which are set to add 200,000 ounces of annual gold production starting in 2027. The $6 billion expanded share repurchase authorization, equivalent to roughly 7% of NEM’s current $86 billion market capitalization, is expected to be accretive to adjusted EPS by approximately 5% over the next 12 months, assuming full execution at current share prices. Macro tailwinds also support NEM’s long-term outlook: gold prices have risen 12% year-to-date in 2026 amid elevated safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions and expected Fed rate cuts, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals. Newmont’s copper exposure, meanwhile, positions it to benefit from the global energy transition, with copper prices up 18% year-to-date on strong demand from electric vehicle and renewable energy infrastructure sectors. While NEM offers attractive risk-adjusted returns for commodity-focused investors, it is worth noting that analysts have flagged select AI equities with exposure to onshoring trends and 2026 tariff policies as offering higher upside potential with lower downside risk for growth-focused portfolios, for investors willing to take on sector-specific technology risks. (Word count: 1142) Disclosure: No holdings in NEM or related derivatives.
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